Europe urged to press Israel and US for Middle East de-escalation

The article describes the Israeli opposition’s effort to form a government after Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition was ousted on 27 October. President Isaac Herzog gave opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot a mandate to form a government, but the prospective coalition faces difficult arithmetic and ideological divisions. Arab parties’ 27 seats could help it secure a majority, though Eisenkot’s demand that partners affirm Israel’s status as a Jewish state poses a major obstacle. An alternative route to 61 Knesset seats would require ultra-Orthodox parties to join, potentially forcing Avigdor Lieberman to abandon his pledge not to exempt Haredi men from military service.

Even under a new government, the article says, an end to the occupation, Palestinian self-determination and a two-state solution are unlikely priorities. An Eisenkot-led government could support the UN Security Council-approved Gaza peace plan, while conditioning cooperation and an Israeli military withdrawal from most of the Strip on Hamas disarming. External pressure could also lead to steps reversing some Netanyahu-era policies in the West Bank, including curbing settlement expansion, halting the E1 project, dismantling illegal outposts in Area C and releasing Palestinian Authority clearance revenues. The article puts the withheld revenues at between $4.6 billion (€4.1 billion) and $6 billion. It warns that Eisenkot and his allies may still favour military action against Iran and Hezbollah.

In Washington, the article points to uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s approach, despite congressional leverage over spending. It cites Trump’s announced phase-out of nearly $4 billion in annual military aid to Israel and argues that further unconditional aid is unlikely to win congressional approval. A US strike on Iran could trigger retaliation against Gulf states hosting American forces, including attacks on civilian energy and water infrastructure, with economic costs reaching Europe and the United States.

The article calls on European leaders to pursue early contacts with political actors in Israel, the US and Gulf states who support political solutions, while making respect for international law central. It also urges the EU to ban trade with Israeli settlements, impose sanctions on outgoing ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, and halt military exports to Israel. After a new Israeli government takes office, it recommends a time-limited EU-Israel dialogue with human-rights benchmarks under the Association Agreement.