The internal tug-of-war became evident when a 16 June draft excluded references to Gaza and the West Bank, despite previous versions urging members to discuss measures against the deteriorating situation. This hesitation persists even as Global Echo reports that one in six Israeli shipments to the UK and EU contains goods from illegal settlements. While Israel continues to expand its footprint in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, the UN reports that over 36,000 Palestinians have been displaced by security forces and settlers. Meanwhile, the death toll in Gaza has surpassed 73,000 since the October 2023 Hamas attacks.
Claudio Francavilla of Human Rights Watch has publicly challenged Berlin’s stance, arguing that Germany’s post-war guilt cannot excuse the current failure to uphold international law. While countries like Belgium, France, Ireland, Spain, and Sweden advocate for stronger action, a trade ban could be stalled by Germany or smaller allies. The European Commission holds the power to table a proposal, but legal hurdles remain; if classified as a trade measure, a qualified majority vote could potentially bypass German opposition, provided Italy shifts its neutral position. Regardless of the political outcome in Brussels, the issue appears destined for the courts in Luxembourg as the viability of a two-state solution continues to erode.

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