The Commission president identified Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia as the primary focus for continued or expanded support. Despite Frontex reporting a 40 percent drop in arrivals during the first five months of this year, the EU remains intent on tightening its southern flank. Data shows approximately 12,000 people reached Italy from Libya during this period, with arrivals primarily originating from Bangladesh, Somalia, and Sudan.
Von der Leyen characterized these movements as illegal, a stance that overlooks the high asylum success rates for Sudanese and Somali nationals who often lack any viable alternative to the perilous sea crossing. This push to lower arrival figures coincides with the implementation of stringent new EU asylum rules and a deportation framework designed to accelerate removals. With northern member states pressuring Rome over the secondary movement of migrants, the Commission is betting that externalizing border control will alleviate internal friction and justify the suspension of temporary border checks within the bloc.

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