Italy’s Ukraine aid tests Meloni’s coalition and ambitions

Italy ranks ninth among European donors, but its contribution has almost ground to a halt in 2026. By mid-year, EU member states had delivered €26.4 billion in military aid to Ukraine, with another €18.4 billion in the pipeline—well below the official figure of €77 billion. Italy’s previous package dated to November 2025.

The delay reflects a widening political split. A September poll found 55% of Italians opposed further weapons deliveries; 29% wanted Italy to stop taking Kyiv’s side altogether. Meloni’s Brothers of Italy and Forza Italia support military supplies, while coalition partner the League has repeatedly called for them to end. In February, MEP and former general Roberto Vannacci left the League, partly over the government’s backing for Ukraine, and founded National Future, a far-right, Russia-friendly party.

Opposition parties are divided too. The Five Star Movement and the Green and Left Alliance oppose sending more weapons. The Democratic Party supports Ukraine but rejects Meloni’s plans to increase military spending, while smaller centrist parties back both arms for Kyiv and higher defense investment. Whoever governs after next year’s election will have to manage these competing positions.

Equipment shortages add a practical constraint. Italy is running low on land-warfare supplies, including artillery, air defense, armored vehicles and ammunition. Defense Minister Crosetto said on Nov. 5 that Ukraine’s needs had become more specific as the war evolved and were increasingly difficult for Italy to meet. Over the past five years, investment has not kept pace with the competing demands of arming Ukraine, replenishing stocks and meeting Italy’s growing NATO capability commitments as the United States shifts more responsibility to European allies and Canada.

The issue also bears on Meloni’s diplomatic standing. Her adviser Fabrizio Saggio joined European officials coordinating on the sidelines of Russia-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 10. Before an informal EU summit in Dublin on Nov. 13, Meloni urged European Council President António Costa in a letter to appoint an EU envoy for the peace talks. But the League has vowed to oppose extending aid beyond Dec. 31. The 2027 decision will test whether Italy can sustain support for Kyiv—and match its diplomatic ambitions with military assistance.