Andy Burnham’s honeymoon: popular tax cuts face a North Sea reality check

The government is currently weighing the fate of the Rosebank and Jackdaw offshore projects. Despite campaign pledges to halt new oil and gas licenses, these developments—inherited from the previous administration—remain active in the pipeline. US President Donald Trump recently fueled the fire by claiming Burnham had committed to opening up the North Sea during a private call, a move that sparked an open letter of protest from the University of Manchester’s science department.

Burnham’s domestic agenda remains ambitious, centered on VAT cuts for pubs and music venues alongside a £2 cap on bus fares. However, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research warns that these measures, including the removal of VAT on electricity bills, lack clear funding and collide with a 3.5 percent GDP target for defense spending. Experts suggest that even if the Prime Minister greenlights the drilling, the projects may face the same legal hurdles that stalled them in 2025. As Andrew Scott of University College London noted, the limits of executive power mean that promising to drill does not guarantee a single barrel of oil will ever reach commercial production.