Markets navigate Middle East truce and looming Fed policy shifts

Brent crude continues to trade under $73 per barrel, having shed more than 10% of its value last week. Despite the weekend's geopolitical flashpoint, the market currently prioritizes the resumption of Gulf shipping and existing supply gluts over regional instability. The tech sector, however, remains fragile following a quarter of intense profit-taking, further complicated by Apple’s price adjustments and uncertainty surrounding OpenAI’s potential IPO.

Asian markets closed lower on Monday as investors digested these shifting currents, though Wall Street futures and European shares showed early signs of resilience. The U.S. dollar is tracking toward its strongest monthly performance in nearly a year, bolstered by expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Attention now turns to the European Central Bank’s annual symposium in Sintra, Portugal, where newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak on Wednesday. With the U.S. Independence Day holiday shortening the trading week, the June payroll report remains the primary barometer for assessing the outlook on interest rates.