The Meloni Model: Can Italy’s Blueprint Export to France?

Italy, a founding EU member and long-standing political laboratory for populism, offers a complex case study for the continent. Meloni’s Brothers of Italy have managed to maintain power longer than many predecessors, largely by tempering their rhetoric on the international stage. Economically, the results remain fragmented. While unemployment has dipped to a historic low of five percent, this shift is driven more by a shrinking workforce than robust growth. Productivity stays stagnant, and the middle class continues to endure a steady erosion of purchasing power.

Her governance style relies on a conservative social agenda, marked by the dismantling of the Citizens’ Income scheme to trim the public deficit. Climate policy follows a similar pragmatic path, favoring fossil fuels and natural gas over aggressive renewable expansion. These positions mirror parts of the National Rally’s platform in France, yet direct replication is unlikely. France possesses a higher wealth base and stronger wages, creating a different political climate. Even if Jordan Bardella were to secure the presidency in 2027, the structural hurdles to forming a cohesive, functional government mirror the difficulties faced by radical parties in Germany and Spain, where coalition building remains a significant barrier to implementation.