SpaceX Stock Faces Volatility as Lockups and Index Inclusions Loom

Wall Street is bracing for a high-stakes period for Elon Musk’s aerospace firm as it navigates the transition from a record-setting $75 billion IPO to its first public quarterly earnings cycle. Jefferies analysts estimate that the company’s upcoming inclusion in Russell indexes could trigger $2.68 billion in demand from passive investment funds. This influx offers a potential floor for the stock, providing a counterweight to the broader sector selloffs that recently knocked the Nasdaq composite lower.

Despite the bullish expectations surrounding index additions, the options market signals growing caution. Data from Susquehanna Financial Group indicates a 40% probability that shares could drop below $130 by mid-September. Defensive positioning is becoming more apparent, with put-to-call ratios shifting as traders hedge against the potential release of restricted shares. Unlike standard six-month lockup periods, SpaceX has structured a phased release of equity tied to specific performance targets, meaning some insiders could begin liquidating positions immediately following the company’s first earnings report if certain criteria are met.