Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya on Lukashenko’s War Gamble and Future Resistance

Relocating her base of operations from Vilnius to Warsaw earlier this year, Tsikhanouskaya describes the move as a strategic shift to better coordinate with the large Belarusian diaspora in Poland. The change was prompted by evolving security protocols after the Lithuanian government reduced funding for her protection. Despite the geographical shift, her core objectives remain unchanged: securing the release of political prisoners and organizing for future democratic elections.

Addressing the risk of Belarus entering the war in Ukraine, Tsikhanouskaya warns that Lukashenko’s rhetoric is a calculated deception. She points to the 2022 invasion, which launched from Belarusian soil despite his earlier assurances that no missiles would be fired. She maintains that the regime relies on Russian support for survival, yet fears the Belarusian military’s potential refusal to fight. According to Tsikhanouskaya, the dictator currently seeks to balance his loyalty to Vladimir Putin with the need to prevent internal unrest, often oscillating between contradictory claims about external threats to keep his base in a state of confusion.

Regarding the lack of mass protests within Belarus, she emphasizes that the movement has not vanished but shifted into a survival-oriented state. The 2020 crackdown left a legacy of fear and draconian prison sentences, forcing the opposition into an emergency mode. She asserts that citizens remain prepared to act once a new opening for change emerges, while her office continues to build diplomatic ties and support families affected by the regime’s ongoing repression.