Strong Rouble Undercuts Russian Export Gains

While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices above $120 per barrel and prompted Sberbank to hike its 2026 commodity export revenue forecast by 27% to $491 billion, the domestic economic reality remains grim. Exporters are struggling to cover rising internal costs as the rouble trades at approximately 71 against the dollar. Vedyakhin argues that for the industry to regain equilibrium, the currency needs to depreciate toward the 90 per dollar mark to protect both corporate margins and state budget stability.

The broader economic outlook remains stagnant, with Sberbank projecting growth between 0.5% and 1% for 2026. High interest rates, currently at 14.5%, are stifling investment-grade lending, leaving companies in the metals, forestry, and coal sectors to seek debt restructuring rather than expansion. With the central bank expected to accelerate rate cuts beyond the standard 50 basis points on June 19 to combat the rising real interest rate, Vedyakhin remains skeptical of any near-term consumer boom, citing limited household liquidity and inevitable budget consolidation.