Europe faces a volatile US foreign policy shift

The instinct to wait for domestic American political shifts offers little comfort. Even a significant electoral setback for the Republican agenda in future cycles is unlikely to restore the foreign policy stability of the Obama or Biden eras. Instead, internal constitutional friction in Washington threatens to render the United States even more erratic. The assumption that a divided Congress would ensure a decisive response to a potential Russian incursion into NATO territory ignores the deepening paralysis within the American political apparatus. Rather than relying on the hope of a political pivot, European capitals must reconcile with the possibility that the era of dependable security guarantees is rapidly eroding.