Red Sea Instability Triggers Regional Security Crisis

Ethiopian federal authorities report an all-out offensive by the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, threatening a return to full-scale civil war. This instability hits a critical nerve for the nation’s economy, which relies on Djibouti’s ports for 97 percent of its trade. With Houthi rebels now controlling the Yemeni coastline, the entire logistics chain supporting East Africa faces profound disruption.

The pressure extends to Egypt, a key EU partner in migration management, as declining Suez Canal revenues tighten the country's fiscal belt. Concurrently, the EU’s security footprint in Djibouti—which hosts multiple international military bases—remains vulnerable to regional volatility. In Somalia, the situation is compounded by the Al-Shabaab insurgency. The Houthis reportedly supply at least $100 million in arms to the terror group, a smuggling pipeline strengthened by their maritime expansion. With the United States having withdrawn financial backing for the African Union-led security mission, the EU has stepped in as the primary donor. To address these mounting risks, European governments recently doubled support for the Djibouti Armed Forces to €20 million via the European Peace Facility.