Assessing the reality of a Russian threat to the European Union

The landscape of European security is defined by a distinction between hybrid aggression and direct warfare. Kremlin-linked disinformation, cyberattacks, and frequent drone incursions into sovereign airspace are viewed as provocations rather than precursors to a full-scale invasion. Despite the frequency of these incursions, EU member states have largely avoided invoking Nato’s Article 5, categorizing such events as collateral consequences of the war in Ukraine rather than deliberate armed attacks.

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has urged a shift in strategy, arguing that the continent must prepare for various scenarios of provocation. This tactical shift is visible on the ground: countries like Romania, following a drone crash in Galați that injured two people, have moved away from initial reluctance and are now more systematically intercepting unauthorized aircraft. However, the overarching strategy remains one of restraint. European governments continue to prioritize de-escalation, aiming to bolster defensive readiness without crossing thresholds that might trigger a broader, uncontrollable confrontation with Vladimir Putin.