Satellite Thermal Imaging Reveals True Impact of Strikes on Russian Refineries

The Kapotnya refinery in Moscow, which became infamous in June after a stray Russian anti-aircraft missile destroyed a storage tank, remains in a state of suspended animation. Analysis of thermal imagery from Constelrr’s Skybee satellites shows that the facility’s primary AVT-6 processing unit remained cold as of late July, indicating a total operational halt for over a month. Unlike the Kstovo refinery in Nizhny Novgorod, which possesses multiple processing units capable of compensating for localized damage, Kapotnya relies on a single AVT-6 unit. Consequently, the strike effectively crippled its production capacity.

These findings highlight the limitations of relying on visual evidence alone. While the Kstovo facility saw its primary unit struck repeatedly throughout the spring and early summer, satellite data confirms that its four remaining units continued to function, insulating the plant from a total collapse in output. The move toward 30-meter resolution thermal monitoring marks a shift in how observers track the war’s economic attrition. By measuring the absence of heat signatures rather than the presence of fire, analysts can now confirm exactly when and for how long critical infrastructure remains offline, stripping away the ambiguity that typically follows initial combat reports.