Marine Le Pen’s Return and the Risks of a Far-Right Presidency

The court’s decision to lift the ban on Le Pen caught observers off guard, effectively sidelining her protege Jordan Bardella. While Bardella had prepared for a presidential bid, he now faces the reality of being viewed as inexperienced—lacking the executive resume of rivals like Édouard Philippe. Current polling suggests Le Pen could command up to 35% of the vote, placing her firmly in the second round. However, the path to the Élysée remains precarious, as her candidacy is likely to trigger a broad coalition of moderate and left-wing forces determined to block her path.

Should the National Rally secure power, the party intends to bypass traditional legislative hurdles by shifting toward direct democracy. Their strategy relies on using referendums to enact sweeping changes, particularly on immigration. This approach, however, remains legally fraught. The French Constitutional Council serves as a critical check, and current judicial standards would likely invalidate laws that create discriminatory distinctions between citizens and foreigners. While the party has floated the idea of abolishing the Council to clear these barriers, they would still contend with the constraints of international treaties and European Union policy. A victory for the National Rally would not merely be a change in leadership, but a fundamental challenge to the established institutional architecture of the French state.