Garry Kasparov: Europe ignores that Putin is already at war

Kasparov contends that the European Union’s ongoing debate over diplomatic engagement with Moscow relies on a fundamental misunderstanding of the conflict. He asserts that Vladimir Putin has been transparent about his intentions since his 1997-border demands, yet Western officials—whom Kasparov labels as "managers" rather than leaders—consistently lack the political will to challenge the status quo. In his view, the failure to act after the 2014 annexation of Crimea was a turning point that emboldened the Russian leadership to pursue the erasure of Ukraine.

Drawing on two centuries of Russian history, Kasparov identifies a recurring pattern: meaningful domestic change only occurs following military defeat. He points to the Crimean War of 1856, the 1905 conflict with Japan, and the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan as evidence that authoritarian regimes in Moscow are only forced to reform when their imperial ambitions are checked on the battlefield. He describes this persistent drive for expansion as an "imperial virus," suggesting that until the current regime faces a decisive military failure, the cycle of aggression will remain the defining feature of Russia’s political culture.