Ankara Summit Puts EU Defense Autonomy to the Test

The atmosphere heading into the 7 and 8 July meetings is defined by a shift from traditional burden-sharing toward outright burden-shifting. While Nato chiefs committed last June to raising core defense spending to 3.5 percent of GDP by 2035, the Trump administration has signaled a potential drawdown of its military presence. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently confirmed a six-month review of US assets in Europe, leaving allies scrambling to fill the potential void.

To mitigate this, the EU is accelerating its €800bn SAFE programme, aiming to decouple its industrial output from a reliance on US military hardware. Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte is expected to prioritize these industrial ties during the summit, where a series of high-value procurement contracts are slated for signature. These deals represent a frantic attempt to bolster domestic manufacturing before US political support for the alliance erodes further.