Goldman Sachs analysis forecasts AI-driven displacement of 15 million jobs

Briggs, who leads the bank’s global economics team, estimates that 9% of the U.S. workforce will eventually transition out of their current roles. Current data indicates that sectors such as graphic design, management consulting, and technology are already seeing a reduction of 10,000 to 15,000 jobs from monthly growth figures. Despite these figures, Briggs dismisses the narrative of permanent mass unemployment, noting that roughly 85% of job growth over the last eight decades stemmed from the creation of entirely new positions. With 30 million jobs created annually in the U.S., a modest 5% increase in hiring velocity would theoretically neutralize the displacement caused by automation.

Neil Thompson of MIT offers a more tempered outlook, suggesting that practical hurdles will slow the adoption of AI far behind its theoretical capabilities. Issues such as data privacy in fields like medicine and the high cost of implementation create significant barriers to rapid deployment. Thompson emphasizes that most roles will likely see partial automation rather than total elimination. Drawing a parallel to the rise of GPS, which expanded the taxi industry while simultaneously altering driver wages, he characterizes AI as a rising tide that allows for workforce adaptation rather than an abrupt, destructive wave. This perspective arrives against a backdrop of a cooling labor market, where recent reports show hiring slowing and unemployment fluctuations driven by workers exiting the labor force.