The Strategic Trap of EU-Turkey Relations

The tension between European security needs and political principles has reached a critical point. While Central and Eastern European nations push for closer military integration, others remain wary of Turkey's autonomous posture. Ankara, meanwhile, is leveraging its expanding defense industry—which saw a record $10 billion in exports in 2025—to demand a larger role in Euro-Atlantic security. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan continues to press for deeper involvement in EU defense initiatives, arguing that Turkey’s contributions are currently undervalued.

This push for cooperation faces a significant trust deficit, fueled by ongoing disputes over Cyprus and Turkey’s democratic backsliding. The European Parliament has consistently called for a harder line, citing the detention of political figures like Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu as evidence of a systemic decline in the rule of law. Despite this, EU institutions often adopt a more pragmatic, transactional approach, prioritizing stability over political confrontation. According to analysts, this creates a fragmented policy where defense ties may continue to deepen, even as the prospect of formal political rapprochement remains frozen. For the foreseeable future, Turkey will likely remain outside the bloc’s institutional framework while serving as an indispensable, if uncomfortable, pillar of European strategic planning.